I'm going to do my darndest to minimize the use of AI this year. As much fun as it has been to have skits written in voices of characters we all know and love, I think we're all burnt out on AI Kool-Aid Man'ing its way into our lives.
With that disclosure out of the way, let's get down to business. We had a very succesful draft on Sunday. Everyone was in attendance, we only had to pause once, and Zay Flowers broke free of the Powderhoundmals. We'll see who the real beneficiary is with that last one. I'm going to go through each team's draft, pull a highlight or two, a question mark, and share my thoughts. Why me? Because I'm trying not to fall asleep.
Grab your energy drink, kick your feet up, and be sure to turn your auto-draft off, its time for the Draft Review.
Love it: Carnell Tate, WR, Titans, Pick 7.01. So since I watched Quarterback on Netflix I've become a Cam Ward believer. He genuinely seems like a good dude, with a good head on his shoulders, and seems to be doing the right things to become a succeful quarterback. And his high school ran a Wing-T. He threw the ball like 100 times in his senior year. Its hilarious that that stat line ended up being the 1st overall pick. Why does that make me love the Carnell Tate pick? Because Cam Ward needs to throw the ball to someone. Sky high draft capital, and enough talent around him in Wan'Dale Robinson, Calvin Ridley, and Chimere Dike, to avoid getting all the defensive attention. Low risk, high reward here.
Leave it: RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos, Pick 6.12. The Broncos' backfield situation is messy at best. Lots of meh to mid+ guys and a coach who isn't willing to commit to a single one of them. I like the upside of Blake Corum, who went 8 picks later, a bit more than Harvey. Obviously Corum is behind an elite RB and Harvey is behind an injury prone RB, so Harvey's road to starting seems a lot more clear.
Keep an eye out: The Bengals stack. We've seen it work before, will we see it work again. If they're healthy, Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow will put up enough points to feed generations. Love the draft logic there.
Love it: DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles, Pick 3.02. I've committed to finding something to love in everyone's draft. In this case its all the targets that need to go somewhere with the departure of AJ Brown. Makai Lemon and Dontayvion Wicks will absord some, but Smith should see a significant jump in targets. He's the most proven, has report with Jalen Hurts, and should be primed for a career year.
Leave it: Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers, Keeper 2.11. After the news broke today this was the easy pick for this category. The police report and evidence against Josh Jacobs is not good. And the kind of not good that I think could lead him to be cut from the team. If Jacobs is suspended and/or unemployed this season, its obviously devestating for Jeff's team. Obviously that's all secondary to just not being an abuser.
Keep an eye out: Omar Cooper, WR, Jets, Pick 13.2. He's without the pressure of being the top dawg in town, is on a losing team, and should be getting plenty of opprotunity to get catches in garbage time. That could very well be a recipe for fantasy gold.
Love it: Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders, Pick 5.03. I've talked myself into being a Scary Terry Truther and believing that the real Terry is 2024 Terry who was WR7. Maybe its because I have him in dynasty, and maybe its because someone has to catch a bunch of footballs in Washington this year.
Leave it: Jordan Love, QB, Packers, Pick 13.3. Its not because I don't love(see what I did there) the player. I'm a J-Love believer, card carrying member. But I don't see him getting picked to start over Drake Maye very often, if ever, this season. Now that very well could change based on the Josh Jacobs situation(see above) because I firmly believe that Marshawn Lloyd is just not a good runningback and if he's starting the Packers are throwing the ball a lot.
Keep an eye out: Brian Thomas Jr, WR, Jaguars, Keeper 9.3. Who is the real BTJ? The rookie phenom? Or the just OK 4th tier WR we saw all of last year? That remains to be seen but it'll be a make or break year for BTJ. Trevor Lawrence should throw for at least 4000 yards this year, we'll see how close to 25% of those Brian Thomas Jr gets.
Love it: Malik Washington, WR, Dolphins, Pick 15.4. "Commish do you really love this pick?" No. You got me. I don't truly love this pick. Its a 15th rounder. Its a dart throw at this point. HOWEVER. If you can get a player who is slated in as a team's top WR in the 15th round, I don't care what team it is, there's some level of value there. If Malik Willis turns out to be an above average starting QB season long, this pick could make Mike look like a genius in his first season.
Leave it: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs, Pick 7.04. I realize picking on the NFL old TE who has all but said this is going to be his last season so he can ride off into the sunset as the arguably TE GOAT with his billionaire wife. Kelce's worst fantasy finish in his career is TE9. Since then its been nearly a decade of mostly top 1 TE seasons. At some point he needs to fall of the cliff, right? Right?!?
Keep an eye out: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Cardinals, Pick 2.09. The Cardinals are going to be TERRIBLE this year. They're gonna lose a bunch of games, by a lot of points, and we're goign to have to see just how much that bites into Love's fantasy scoring.
Love it: Jameson Williams, WR, Lions, Pick 5.05. Jamo was the WR10 last season and doesn't seem to be getting enough credit for that. He's the home run hitter for the Lions, so he's going to have underwhelming games at points, but the highs are worth the lows and if he's anywhere near his WR10 ranking from last year, this is going to be a crazy value pick.
Leave it: Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers, Pick 10.08. I'll preface this by saying this is a low cost pick. I'm just not convinced that Deebo will go an entire season without a meltdown or some sort of shenanigans. But the 49ers have room in their WR corp and Deebo clearly has the talent to make an impact. I just don't love the player.
Keep an eye out: TEs in new places. Ryan scooped Isiah Likely in the 7th and Chig Okonkwo in the 12th. Both find themselves in great situations and poised to make huge leaps in their careers with their new teams. If one of them manages to live up to expectations Ryan will be sitting pretty at the TE position.
Love it: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys, Pick 7.06. I think the value here is stupendeous. Dak has two elite WRs, a quality TE, and will throw for roughly a million yards. I think Dak is a lock to be a top 10 QB at worst, and very well could be a top 5 QB. He'll be a great base for this team if he stays healthy all year.
Leave it: DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers, Pick 6.07. I might just be a hater, but I'm not a believer in DK having a quality season this year. That might not be totally his fault, I just think Pittsburgh isn't going to be a good football team.
Keep an eye out: Which WRs will start. Jim's team has stupid depth at the WR position. Alec Pierce is a huge value get in the 9th round and is a high upside, high risk, home run hitter that could win and lose weeks in fantasy.
Love it: Bo Nix, QB, Broncos, Pick 9.06. I've already said it, Bo Nix has finished QB7 two years in a row and somehow people aren't believers yet. He's got a shiny new weapon in Jaylen Waddle and maybe this will be the year that people start buying in. I wanted to draft Nix but got cold feet and drafted Caleb Williams two rounds earlier. Womp womp.
Leave it: Josh Downs, WR, Colts, Pick 10.06. I'm not a believer in Josh Downs. He feels like the every year "its his year" discussion guy, and it never comes through. The Colts clearly don't believe either as they brought in an ancient Keenan Allen. You be the judge.
Keep an eye out: Bill's TE situation. If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it could very well be streaming the TE position. I expect to see a lot of pick up and drops for Bill this year. Not a bad tactic, but one that comes with uncertainty.
Love it: De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, 49ers, Pick 10.05. IDK, I didn't like much of my draft, but Stribling seems to be making waves in 49ers camp. Its an aging WR room, but he'll have the chance to learn a lot and move up the depth chart in a hurry.
Leave it: Caleb Williams, QB, Bears, Pick 7.08. I think this was a bit of a panic buy. My plan coming in was to wait out and try and get Bo Nix in the 9th or 10th. That clearly didn't happen and I'm kicking myself for it now. I do think Williams will have a good year though.
Keep an eye out: 50 shades of RB. Two sets of RB handcuffs give some security at the positon. Gibbs-Pacheco and Price-Charbonnet give a bit of injury proofing at the RB position.
Love it: KC Concepcion, WR, Browns, Pick 9.09. Someone has to catch the ball in Cleveland. The quarterback room is a nightmare, the team is a nightmare, but at the end of the day they will move the ball some distance down the field and part of that will include catching the football. Harold Fannin will be a target, Concepcion will hope to be weapon as well.
Leave it: Brandon Aubrey, K, Cowboys, Pick 10.04. Not because I don't like the player, not because he isn't elite, but because I think he could've been gotten a couple rounds later. Aubrey is the low side of the elite tier, along with Kai Fairbairn and Jason Myers, but he's still a full point per game better than the next tier.
Keep an eye out: What Sam ends up ultimately doing with Jordyn Tyson. All signs point to a long stint on the IR, so Sam will stash him on the IR, but he'll find himself without a fantasy team if another big name player needs the IR space.
Love it: Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders, Pick 2.03, An elite talent in a shallow position. If he can stay on the field he'll do numbers. I personally think the best case scenario is Kirk Cousins winning the QB job, which seems to be the case. Even when Mendoza gets time, Brock will become the safe, reliable target for the rookie.
Leave it: Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys, Pick 10.03. I actually don't hate the value and position if George didn't already have an elite TE on his squad. That said, it does keep a serviceable TE out of the hands of the competition.
Keep an eye out: The Packers D/ST and Trey Smack combo. Smack looked stupendeous during the pre-season. The Packers have been dying for consistency at the kicker position since Mason Crosby left. And Special Teams has been a headache for about as long. With Micah Parsons out til nearly Thanksgiving, the sack numbers might be ugly for a while.
Love it: Ken Walker, RB, Chiefs, Pick 2.02. Real deep dive here, going after the 14th player off the board...but the Chiefs offense was kind of not great last year, and they haven't had a truly elite RB for years. K9 ends up in the perfect place and should feast in KC.
Leave it: Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants, Pick 3.11. I'm just not convinced Skattebo is long for the NFl the way he seeks out contact. He's so much fun to watch, but we're watching his brain get scrambled. I hope he stays healthy, but I don't think he will.
Keep an eye out: Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers, Pick 4.02. Its not a matter of not liking the player, its a matter of who is the real version of the player. The boarderline WR1 from 2024, or the huge fall off we saw last year finishing WR30.
Love it: Kenny Gainwell, RB, Buccaneers, Pick 10.01. I think this pick could prove to be one of the best of the draft. Gainwell is going to be a pillar of the Bucs offense and is going to catch a lot of footballs. There's still competition, but the Bucs brought him in for a reason and part of that reason is not believing in who they already had.
Leave it: Mike Evans, WR, 49ers, Pick 5.12. Listen. I'm a card carrying member of the Mike Evans fan club, but he's football old, he's beat up, and he fell off hard last year. I liked the next 5 WRs off the board more than Evans this year.
Keep an eye out: Patrick Mahomes coming back and apparently being good to go for week 1 is pretty incredible. The Chiefs traded for Justin Fields, clearly expecting Mahomes to miss time, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Mahomes being healthy and playing well will cause some game day decision headaches for Randy.
Take all of this with a pound of salt. My name isn't on the trophy. I just click clack around some spreadsheets. The beautiful thing about fantasy football is that you can't win a championship during the draft...but you sure can lose one.
Keep an eye out for individual team previews over the next week and change leading up to opening night. And I've been making huge progress on my all time stats project. For those of you curious, the LinkedIn style summery of my project lately has been this: "I built an ETL pipeline that scrapes historical fantasy-football data from multiple platforms, normalizes it, and loads it into an Excel/Power Query data model."
Expect full all time records, individual team records, and weekly matchup screens, including historical data, win streaks, and best/worst games.
That's all for now!